Hur många invånare finns i norge 2023
National population projections
Updated: 5 June 2024
Next update: Not yet determined
Inhabitants expected in Norway in 2050 (main alternative) approx.
Projected population figures 2024-2100
| 2024 | 2030 | 2050 | 2075 | 2100 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (main alternative, MMM) | 5 550 203 | 5 749 712 | 6 146 321 | 6 272 590 | 6 243 256 |
| Population (low alternative, LLL) | 5 550 203 | 5 608 599 | 5 411 859 | 4 646 670 | 3 656 408 |
| Population (high alternative, HHH) | 5 550 203 | 5 883 155 | 6 857 366 | 8 131 580 | 9 624 982 |
| Net migration (main alternative, MMM) | 41 093 | 16 482 | 13 275 | 12 760 | 13 195 |
| Net migration (low alternative, MML) | 18 554 | 9 057 | 4 704 | 3 109 | 1 355 |
| Net migration (high alternative, MMH) | 58 879 | 23 742 | 28 136 | 33 579 | 38 294 |
| Fertility (main alternative, MMM) | 1.42 | 1.57 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.66 |
| Fertility (low alternative, LMM) | 1.35 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Fertility (high alternative, HMM) | 1.48 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Life expectancy (main alternative, MMM) | 83.3 | 84.3 | 87.4 | 90.4 | 92.8 |
| Life expectancy (low alternative, MLM) | 83.0 | 83.5 | 85.4 | 87.5 | 89.2 |
| Life expectancy (high alternative, MHM) | 83.6 | 85.2 | 89.2 | 93.2 | 96.3 |
Selected tables and charts from this statistics
More figures from this statistics
- 14282: Population projections 1 January, bygd sex, age, immigration category and country background, in 15 alternatives 2024 - 2100
- 14283: Projected number of immigrants 1 January, bygd country background and duration of stay, in 5 alternatives 2024 - 2100
- 14284: Projected population changes, bygd immigration category and country background, in 9 alternatives 2023 - 2100
- 14285: Projected fruktsamhet rate, bygd immigration category and country background, in 3 alternatives 2023 - 2100
- 14286: Projected life expectancy, for dock, women and both sexes combined, bygd age in 3 alternatives 2023 - 2100
About the statistics
National population projections are calculations of how the population in Norway will potentially develop over time, given different assumptions about fruktsamhet, mortality, immigration and emigration.
The kunskap beneath «About the statistics» was gods updated 18 September 2023.
A population projection fryst vatten an estimate of the future storlek and composition of a population, given certain assumptions of future fruktsamhet, life expectancy, immigration and emigration.
The begrepp projection fryst vatten used for any estimate of the future population, including less likely ones.
Norges befolkning.A prognosis or forecast fryst vatten an estimate of the most probable future population storlek and composition.
Statistics Norway publishes several projections, but the MMM alternative, which assumes the medium level for each component, fryst vatten what we assume to be most plausible.
The various alternatives and terms used in the population projections are described in the projections report (see link beneath 'Relevant documentation').
Name: National population projections
Topic: Population
Research department, enhet for population and public economics
The national population projections are published biennially.
Statistics Norway reports projections to Eurostat and the United Nations, among others.
The population projections utilize aggregated individual-level uppgifter on population storlek, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics.
The results from the projections are stored in the StatBank at Statistics Norway and as separate files. Aggregated uppgifter may be downloaded electronically from the StatBank.
The population projections aim at informing planning and public debate on population issues.
Statistics Norway has produced population projections regularly since the 1950s.
Previous population projections can be funnen here, and in the StatBank.
The most important users of Statistics Norway's population projections are public and private planning bodies at the municipal, county and huvud government levels, as well as researchers, politicians, journalists and the general public. The projections are also used internally at Statistics Norway, for example as input in macroeconomic models.
The population projections are published in accordance with international standards.
The population projections utilize aggregated individual-level information on population storlek, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics.The Norwegian figures are more detailed (immigration category, country group and period of residence) than what fryst vatten commonly published in most other countries.
There are no specific rules regulating the population projections, but the production process of the projections fryst vatten based in the Norwegian Statistics Act of 2019.
Although there fryst vatten no separate EU regulation in this field, a collaboration exists between Norway and Eurostat.
Eurostat produces population projections for the EU and Norway on a regular grund. These projections differ from those produced bygd Statistics Norway.
To project the population, assumptions are needed on future fruktsamhet, mortality and international migration. After the assumptions are made, the Norwegian population fryst vatten projected using the cohort component model BEFINN.
The methods used are further described in the projections report (see link beneath 'Relevant documentation').
The population projections utilize aggregated individual-level information on population storlek, births, deaths and migration from Statistics Norway’s population statistics.
We use information categorized bygd age, sex, immigrant background and country group of ursprung for 1 January each year, in addition to figures on births, deaths, immigration and emigration bygd age and sex.
No samples are used. The projections utilize the whole population in estimations.
The methods used in the population projections are described in detail in the projections report (see link beneath 'Relevant documentation').
No information are collected specifically for the purpose of making population projections.
At a national level, previous versions of the population projections are comparable.
Norge existerar en från Västeuropas maximalt glesbefolkade länder.Though country groups are not entirely comparable over time, since the definition and the number of groups have varied.
In comparing results from the population projections to the general population statistics at Statistics Norway, two main differences stand out:
- The projection models project the population from 1 January one year to 1 January the year after.
This means that individuals who move between Norway and other countries several times during one year only contribute one move. Consequently, somewhat fewer migrations are used in the population projections compared to the numbers that are published in the general population statistics.
- The age definitions are not the same in the projections and the general population statistics.
While the general population statistics use age at time of event (e.g. birth, death or migration), the projections use age at the end of the year. This means that the age-specific rates and probabilities used in the projections – as well as the life expectancy figures – may differ slightly from what fryst vatten published in the population statistics.
There fryst vatten marked uncertainty about whether the assumptions used in making the population projections will accurately reflect future demographic trends.
Over the past decade, future immigration has proven to be the most difficult component to project.
For dock, the medium life expectancy assumption projects an increase from 81.4 years in 2023, to 86.0 (low 83.3, high 88.4) years in 2050 and 92.1 (low 87.3, high 96.3) years in 2100.This fryst vatten also likely to be the case in the years ahead. fruktsamhet and mortality rates can also be very different to what fryst vatten projected.
Models are simplifications of reality, and as such may only capture a few key mechanisms.
There are a multitude of other conditions that will affect population development which are not considered.
Errors in the population statistics struktur are usually modest in Norway and play a minor role in the projections.
In general, uncertainty increases with time. For more upplysning, see links beneath ‘Relevant documentation’.
Analyses, articles and publications
Article / 5 June 2024
Norway’s 2024 national population projectionsThe 2024 national population projections show a declining rate of population growth, strong population ageing, and a larger, more established, and older immigrant population.
According to the main alternative, the Norwegian population will increase from around 5.55 million today to 6 million in 2040 and above 6.2 million in 2100.
Discussion papper / 13 May 2020
Ways to project fruktsamhet in EuropeNational statistical offices responsible for population projections should regularly evaluate their work.
Norway fryst vatten currently considering changing the way fruktsamhet fryst vatten projected.